Expert NFL Survivor Pool Tips, Tricks, Choices Week 4

Avan Kasım 04, 2021

After another week with very few eliminations in the NFL survivor pools, week 4 features the biggest favorite of the year so far as the pick of the most popular survivor pool, but there are plenty of other viable options. We will break down the pros and cons of the five most popular picks as you are probably thinking about picking at least one of these teams. However, it is important to remember that the best choice for your eliminator pool is determined by the popularity of the choice, pool size, future value, and other factors that could alter your strategy.

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Week 4 NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Tips, strategy for choices

Grade: The Popularity Pick numbers below refer to the estimated percentage of survivor pool entries nationwide who have already selected the team in question. These numbers, as well as a team’s odds of winning, can change over the course of the week, so be sure to check out our NFL Survivor’s Picks product for all the latest data.

GREAT NEWS: Before we get to the choices, we are happy to announce that we have just released our first ever e-book, Survivor pool strategy: what it takes to win. It explains all the key elements of the survivor pool strategy and includes case studies on specific historical weeks and pool winners. It’s free right now, so download your copy here.

Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans

Choose popularity: 37% (most popular choice)
Spread points: -16.0

Bills have the best odds of winning this week and also the highest expected value. Usually, the popularity of the high pick greatly reduces the expected value, but tickets have a much higher chance of winning than any other team this week, which is a big plus. However, they are also one of the most valuable teams to save for the future as we expect they will have six additional weeks with 75% or higher odds of winning.

If a large chunk of your pool is using your bills now, they can’t be used heavily in the future, increasing their value in those future weeks. Whether it makes sense to save or use them at this point largely depends on how many other entries you have to beat (your current pool size) and how deep into the season you will need to go to win. Survival rates at the start of the week were high through week 3, so your survivor pool may last longer than usual this year.

OTHER TEAM RANKINGS: Week 4 Pick ’em pool tips

Tennessee Titans to the New York Jets

Choose popularity: 25%
Spread points: -7.5

The Titans, like the other options listed here besides Buffalo, are currently favored by little more than a touchdown. This puts them on the same level of safety as the rest of the Buffalo alternatives.

With increased popularity, however, Tennessee’s value shrinks. Buffalo, the most popular choice, has a 90 percent chance of winning, reducing the likelihood of benefiting from a banknote flip. The other options without banknotes also have similar odds of winning. Unless the odds for all top picks change, Tennessee will have the lowest expected value of the five most popular picks this week.

Tennessee also has moderate future value, similar to New Orleans, lower than Buffalo and Kansas City, and higher than Cincinnati.

Cincinnati Bengals versus Jacksonville Jaguars

Choose popularity: 15%
Spread points: -7.5

The Bengals have a big factor for them this week: future worth, or lack of it. If you’re planning on using Cincinnati, now is the time to use them, as they have over 75% winning odds for probably the only time this year.

The immediate expected value is moderate. The benefit of using Cincinnati is that you save better teams for future weeks, which could be important in a larger pool.

GREAT NEWS: Before we get to the choices, we are happy to announce that we have just released our first ever e-book, Survivor pool strategy: what it takes to win. It explains all the key elements of the survivor pool strategy and includes case studies on specific historical weeks and pool winning entries. It’s free right now, so download your copy here.

New Orleans Saints versus New York Giants

Choose popularity: 11%
Spread points: -7.5

Saints provide a solid combination of winning odds and popularity of choice and are a decent alternative to using Buffalo. If you don’t want to go with a team like Cincinnati, New Orleans offers you the same odds of winning as Tennessee but with less than half the popularity of choice.

Soccer picks from TeamRankings:
Survivor Pool Picks | Pick ’em pool picks | NFL betting

Kansas City Chiefs to the Philadelphia Eagles

Choose popularity: 4%
Spread points: -7.5

Kansas City took a few hits early in the season, starting 1-2. For this week, however, that could provide value in terms of fading recency bias and negative public sentiment. You are giving up some future value if you use the garments, but this is a reasonable contrarian point. You can either save Buffalo or take one of the teams with the next best odds of winning, but with the lowest pick popularity of the best non-Buffalo options.

Get our week 4 survivor pick for your pool!

Each possible choice of NFL week 4 survivors has a forecast value in the current week and a future value associated with it. These values can vary greatly based on the characteristics of your pool, such as its size and rules. It takes a lot of data and math to figure out which choice (or combination of choices, if you’re playing multiple voices) gives you the greatest advantage to win your pool, which is why we’ve spent years building our NFL Survivor Picks product.

Our product asks you a few questions about your survivor pool, then gives you personalized choice recommendations using the latest match data, betting market shares and public collection trends. It keeps track of the choices you have already made and also advises how to split your choices if you are playing multiple voices. There is nothing else like it, which is why our subscribers have reported nearly $ 3 million in survivor pool winnings since 2017.

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We invite you to give it a try and good luck in your Survivor Pools this week!